Bitcoin price struggled to hold momentum near $62,700 at the start of the week, diverging sharply from a broad rally in equities and other risk assets. The cryptocurrency opened at $63,497.25 and slipped to roughly $62,643 by 8:54 a.m. ET, leaving it down 3.88% over the past week.
The muted reaction stood out because oil fell sharply and U.S. stock indexes surged after a geopolitical de-escalation involving Iran. Instead of joining the move, Bitcoin stayed range-bound, reinforcing the view that crypto-specific demand has weakened.
For investors, the key issue is no longer a single headline. It is a combination of fading spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, dormant institutional buying, rising competition from U.S. Treasury yields, and a fresh hardware wallet security incident that has shaken confidence among long-term holders.
Key Facts
- Bitcoin traded near $62,785 with a market capitalization of about $1.26 trillion, down 3.88% over the past week.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $265.4 million in net outflows on July 31, including $122.7 million from BlackRock’s IBIT.
- Global crypto market value stood near $2.16 trillion, below the July 20 peak of $2.28 trillion.
- A fourth wave of thefts targeting vulnerable Coldcard wallets drained about 449 BTC, after earlier waves brought total losses to more than 1,367 BTC.
- Strategy still holds 843,775 BTC but has not added to its position for five consecutive weeks, its longest buying pause in nearly two years.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin’s inability to rally alongside equities is the clearest signal from the latest session. The S&P 500 rose 1.16%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.77%, and the Dow advanced 545.86 points, yet Bitcoin failed to build on its early move and remained trapped below key technical levels. That kind of divergence often suggests the marginal buyer has stepped back.
The change is especially important because July’s partial rebound had depended heavily on spot Bitcoin ETF creations. Once those inflows cooled, the recovery lost traction. Net ETF flows flipped to outflows of nearly 4,000 BTC over the week, and cumulative 2026 flows turned negative after large redemptions in May and June. In practical terms, one of the market’s most visible demand engines is no longer providing consistent support.
Participation metrics also point to a weaker backdrop. July posted the lowest average daily spot trading volume since November 2023, while leverage has begun rebuilding without a strong price response. Total liquidations rose 57.45% to $103.54 million, but that is still modest for a market of this size. The result is a market that looks stagnant rather than panicked, with buyers absent rather than sellers aggressively forcing prices lower.
Bitcoin is not showing signs of capitulation yet, but it is clearly showing signs that a major source of demand has faded.
Why ETF flows and yields matter
The broader macro setup has also become less supportive. Bitcoin’s three-month futures basis yield has stayed below the U.S. two-year Treasury yield since February, reducing the appeal of basis trades that had previously supported ETF activity. With the two-year Treasury yielding about 4.25% and longer-dated bonds yielding even more, institutional capital has a clearer low-risk alternative.
That shift matters because some ETF inflows are not outright bullish allocations. A meaningful share can come from delta-neutral strategies that buy ETF shares and short futures to capture carry. If that spread disappears, the trade becomes less attractive, and what looked like strong demand can fade quickly. The recent whipsaw between a $233.1 million inflow one session and a $265.4 million outflow the next underscores how fragile conviction remains.
Implications for Investors
For portfolio managers and active traders, the current Bitcoin setup is defined by narrowing support and fading catalysts. Bitcoin remains below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, with the nearest major support concentrated in the $60,000 to $62,000 range. Resistance sits between roughly $63,500 and $64,700, with $65,000 still the more decisive level for any trend reversal.
Investors should also monitor the effect of the Coldcard exploit on market psychology. While the stolen amount is small relative to Bitcoin’s $1.26 trillion market value, the attack is notable because it appears to have affected long-dormant wallets created after a firmware flaw introduced in March 2021. The confirmed wave-four drain of about 449 BTC follows prior waves that together exceeded 1,367 BTC. If more long-term holders move coins defensively or return assets to exchanges, liquid supply could rise in an already soft demand environment.
Another factor is the pause in corporate treasury accumulation. Strategy’s holdings remain at 843,775 BTC, unchanged for 35 days, while its cash reserve has grown to $3.75 billion. With the company’s average Bitcoin cost basis near $75,494, the market is watching closely for signs of renewed buying. If a major structural buyer stays inactive while ETF flows remain weak, Bitcoin may struggle to sustain rallies even if macro sentiment improves elsewhere.
At the same time, volatility risk cuts both ways. August has been a weak seasonal month for Bitcoin in recent years, but crowded bearish positioning can create sharp short squeezes in thin markets. With perpetual futures open interest up 27.46% and sentiment still in fear territory at 34 on the Fear and Greed Index, traders should be alert to fast moves around key technical levels and policy catalysts.
Bitcoin now sits at an important junction. A decisive break below the low-$62,000 area would increase focus on the June lows near $57,500 to $59,300, while a close back above $65,000 could revive a recovery toward $67,481 and the $69,000 supply zone. Until one of those levels gives way, the market is likely to remain caught between weak demand, elevated rates and fragile confidence.