Nike stock ended September 4 at $38.40, leaving the athletic-wear giant trading near a 12-year low and roughly $220 billion below its peak market value. The move came as index managers confirmed Nike will be removed from the S&P 100 before the U.S. market opens on September 21.
The two developments matter for different reasons. The price slump reflects years of weakening growth expectations, while the index change introduces a dated, mechanical selling event just 10 days before Nike reports fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings on October 1.
For investors, the central question is no longer whether Nike remains a globally recognized brand. It is whether the company can convert a recovery narrative into measurable revenue and margin improvement before the market applies an even steeper discount.
Key Facts
- Nike closed at $38.40 on September 4, down 0.95% on the session and only 1.2% above its 52-week low of $37.95.
- The company will be removed from the S&P 100 before the U.S. open on September 21, while remaining a constituent of the S&P 500.
- Nike’s market capitalization has fallen to about $57 billion from a peak near $280 billion, implying a loss of roughly $220 billion to $230 billion.
- Fiscal 2026 revenue was $46.4 billion, while net income slipped 3% to $3.11 billion and diluted earnings per share fell to $2.10.
- Fiscal first-quarter 2027 results are scheduled for October 1, with management guiding revenue down by a low-to-mid single-digit percentage.
Nike stock
Nike stock has become a test case in how quickly the market can re-rate a former premium consumer brand when growth slows and the turnaround timeline stretches. Shares are down about 75% from the November 2021 high and roughly 38% in 2026 alone, badly trailing the broader U.S. equity market.
The latest pressure point is the S&P 100 deletion. While the change does not affect Nike’s stock exchange listing and does not remove the company from the S&P 500, it still creates forced portfolio adjustments for funds tied to that benchmark. In isolation, that flow is manageable for a company of Nike’s size. But when a stock is trading near a multiyear low on below-average volume, even modest mechanical selling can weigh on near-term price action.
Fundamentally, Nike is in an awkward middle ground. The company is trying to rebuild wholesale relationships, restore product innovation credibility, and reduce dependence on promotional selling. That strategy has shown some progress in North America, where fourth-quarter revenue rose 3% and wholesale revenue jumped 10%. Yet weakness in higher-margin direct channels and a sharp downturn in Greater China continue to overshadow those gains.
Nike is no longer being priced like a growth leader; it is being valued as a recovery story that still lacks a clear catalyst.
Why the turnaround remains under pressure
Nike’s fiscal 2026 results explain why the market remains skeptical. Full-year revenue was essentially flat at $46.4 billion, while net income declined to $3.11 billion. Wholesale revenue increased 6% to $27.5 billion, but Nike Direct revenue fell 6% to $17.7 billion, pointing to a mix shift that can support sales stability while limiting profit expansion.
The fourth quarter looked stronger on the surface, but a large one-time benefit distorted the picture. Diluted EPS of $0.72 included a tariff-related recovery worth roughly $986 million, with about $0.52 of per-share earnings linked to that item. Excluding the refund, the quarter still beat lowered expectations, but it did not conclusively prove that underlying margin recovery has arrived.
Geography remains the biggest challenge. Greater China revenue fell 17% in the fourth quarter, deepening concerns that one of Nike’s most important growth engines has not stabilized. Management has emphasized commitment to the market, but investors are looking for harder evidence in the form of improving sell-through, cleaner inventories, and a less severe rate of decline.
Implications for Investors
For portfolio managers, Nike now sits between value and value trap. On one hand, the stock trades at about 18.3 times trailing earnings, far below the premium valuations it once commanded. The annual dividend of $1.64 per share implies a yield of roughly 4.27%, which is unusually high for a company with Nike’s brand strength and scale.
On the other hand, the forward valuation still assumes patience. With earnings expectations under pressure and management guiding another soft quarter, the market is signaling that a low share price alone is not enough. Investors may need to see a quarter in which revenue beats expectations and gross margin improves without help from one-off items. Until then, the stock could remain range-bound or vulnerable to another leg lower, especially if support near $37.95 breaks.
There are also important timing considerations. The S&P 100 removal on September 21 is a known event that may cap near-term rebounds. After that, attention will shift almost entirely to the October 1 earnings release and a planned investor day in November. A credible path to margin expansion, stabilization in China, and better performance in sportswear and Jordan categories would likely matter more than symbolic milestone headlines.
Income-oriented investors may find Nike more attractive as the yield rises, but equity holders should remember that the payout ratio has also increased as earnings have weakened. That means the dividend supports the floor argument only if the broader turnaround remains intact.
Nike still has the brand, balance-sheet relevance, and market position to recover over time. The next phase depends on whether management can deliver operating proof fast enough to turn a depressed stock into a credible comeback story before investor patience runs thinner.