XRP is hovering near $1.40 after a monthly escrow release that once ranked among the token’s most closely watched bearish events failed to trigger meaningful selling. That shift matters because it suggests the market may be reassessing one of XRP’s longest-running supply overhangs.
At the same time, the token is pinned inside a narrow $1.38 to $1.42 trading band, with a large on-chain cost-basis cluster around $1.35 acting as a key support zone. ETF demand, macro risk and regulatory developments are now competing to determine whether XRP breaks higher or slips back into consolidation.
With a market capitalization near $81 billion and spot XRP ETFs drawing $1.68 billion in cumulative inflows since March 2026, the token sits at the intersection of improving structural demand and still-fragile short-term momentum.
Key Facts
- XRP traded around $1.40 on September 7, 2026, just below the daily pivot at $1.41, with immediate support at $1.38 and resistance at $1.42.
- Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow on September 1, but re-escrowed 700 million tokens, leaving about 300 million XRP outside the new locks.
- Spot XRP ETFs approved in March 2026 have attracted $1.68 billion in cumulative inflows and hold net assets of roughly $1.48 billion.
- More than 4.8 billion XRP were previously acquired in the $1.31 to $1.38 range, creating a major on-chain demand zone around $1.35.
- XRP is up 34.9% over the past month but remains 61.6% below its July 17, 2025 all-time high of $3.65.
XRP at $1.40: Why the Escrow Overhang Matters Less
The central development for XRP is not just its price at $1.40, but the market’s muted reaction to Ripple’s latest escrow release. On September 1, Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP, valued at roughly $1.38 billion at the time, across transactions of 500 million, 400 million and 100 million tokens. Historically, that date often reinforced fears of heavy supply entering the market.
This time, the mechanics told a different story. Ripple returned 700 million XRP to fresh escrow contracts, leaving only 300 million tokens outside the lockup structure. In practice, that puts expected net monthly supply closer to 100 million to 300 million XRP rather than the full 1 billion headline figure. At a $1.40 token price, 300 million XRP represents about $420 million, a relatively modest amount against an $81 billion market capitalization.
For investors, the significance is clear: the old assumption that every monthly unlock is inherently bearish now looks less reliable. What appears to matter more is whether demand can absorb incremental supply. That demand has recently come from ETF allocations, stronger XRP Ledger activity and a market that has become more comfortable with the escrow process after years of repetition.
The most important shift in XRP is that the market no longer appears to treat every escrow release as an automatic sell signal.
Support, resistance and the $1.35 demand wall
XRP’s technical setup remains finely balanced. The token is trading close to the daily Bollinger Band midline and just under the $1.41 pivot, which signals hesitation rather than confirmed upside momentum. Resistance at $1.42 is immediate, while a stronger technical barrier sits near $1.52, the upper boundary of the 21-day Donchian Channel.
On the downside, the most important level is not just chart support at $1.38 but the broader $1.31 to $1.38 zone, where more than 4.8 billion XRP were previously acquired. That concentration is roughly 8% of circulating supply and creates a meaningful cost-basis cluster. Holders near breakeven often defend such levels, making $1.35 a critical line for preserving the August recovery structure.
XRP also remains above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages on the daily chart, a constructive sign for medium-term trend followers. Yet short-term momentum has stalled, with the daily MACD histogram near negative territory and intraday indicators flattening out. That split between a bullish broader structure and weak near-term energy helps explain why price action has narrowed into such a tight band.
Implications for Investors
For portfolio positioning, XRP now looks less like a pure supply-risk story and more like a flow-driven asset. ETF demand is a major part of that equation. Since March 2026, spot XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.68 billion cumulatively, while net assets stand near $1.48 billion. Those products are estimated to hold close to 977.92 million XRP, or about 1.6% of circulating supply, which effectively removes a portion of float from active trading.
The opportunity is that renewed inflows could quickly shift sentiment if price clears the current range. A move above $1.42 would put $1.52 into focus, while a more decisive break through the $1.55 to $1.60 area could reopen the path toward $1.68. That would likely require a fresh catalyst, such as stronger ETF flows, softer macro data or progress on digital-asset legislation including the proposed CLARITY Act.
The risk is that stalled flows and broader market pressure drag XRP back below its support cluster. Total crypto market capitalization recently fell 3.12% to about $2.69 trillion, while Bitcoin dominance rose to 59.12%, a backdrop that tends to weigh on altcoins. If XRP loses $1.35, the next downside markers sit near $1.25 and then the $1.10 to $1.20 zone. That makes the current setup especially sensitive to macro catalysts, including the September 11 U.S. CPI release and the September 15-16 Federal Reserve decision.
Investors should also keep an eye on on-chain activity and wallet movements tied to Ripple. Ledger fundamentals have improved, with active addresses reaching 2.26 million in August and payment volume jumping 521%, suggesting larger institutional usage. Even so, the cleanest evidence of potential sell pressure would be transfers from Ripple-linked wallets to exchange deposit addresses.
XRP’s next major move is likely to depend on whether demand keeps outpacing the token’s manageable net monthly supply. If the $1.35 support zone holds and institutional flows revive, the market may test higher resistance levels; if not, the August rally could remain a sharp but temporary recovery inside a larger consolidation.