XRP was trading near $1.11 in Thursday activity, up about 1.3% over 24 hours and down roughly 3% over the past week, a milder decline than Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana during the same period. That relative resilience has drawn attention as investors search for signs of strength inside a broader crypto downturn.
The key number, however, is not the daily bounce. XRP is still about 70% below its July 2025 peak of $3.66, and the token has slipped below its 200-week moving average, a level many traders watch as a dividing line between long-term bull and bear conditions.
For markets, that creates a split narrative: XRP has structural advantages that may be helping it fall less than peers, but it remains tied to a weak macro backdrop and a crypto market still struggling to regain momentum.
Key Facts
- XRP traded near $1.11, up roughly 1.3% in 24 hours, with about $1.7 billion in trading volume and a market capitalization near $69 billion.
- The token was down about 3% on the week, a smaller drop than Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana over the same stretch.
- XRP remains roughly 70% below its July 2025 high of $3.66.
- Spot XRP ETFs have attracted more than $1 billion in net inflows since launching in November 2025.
- Ripple releases 1 billion XRP from escrow each month, creating a recurring supply overhang even though some of that supply is typically re-escrowed.
XRP price outlook
XRP’s recent outperformance appears to rest on three pillars: regulatory clarity, a new ETF demand channel and continued relevance in cross-border payments. The end of the multiyear legal dispute over XRP’s status in 2025 removed a major uncertainty that had weighed on institutional adoption for years. In a market where legal classification still matters, that clarity gives XRP a differentiating factor that many digital assets do not have.
The second support is market structure. Spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 and have accumulated more than $1 billion in net inflows, providing a transparent and regulated way for investors to gain exposure. That matters because ETF flows can act as a steady marginal buyer when sentiment is weak elsewhere in crypto. While broader digital asset funds have faced pressure, XRP’s ETF channel has helped offset some of the selling.
Still, resilience should not be confused with trend reversal. XRP remains inside a broader bearish setup after losing key long-term technical support. The token may be holding up better than peers, but it is doing so from a heavily reduced level. Holders, traders and institutions exposed through direct purchases or ETFs are all affected by that tension between better relative performance and poor absolute performance.
XRP is showing relative strength, but relative strength in a falling market is not the same thing as a confirmed recovery.
Why support at $1.05 and resistance at $1.25 matter
In the near term, traders are focused on a narrow technical range. Support is clustered around $1.05, with the psychologically important $1.00 level just below it. If XRP can continue defending that zone, the current consolidation may be read as basing action rather than the start of another sharp leg lower.
On the upside, $1.25 is the first major resistance level. A decisive move above that area would shift attention toward the 100-day exponential moving average near $1.41 and the 200-day exponential moving average near $1.62. Until those levels are reclaimed, the bounce remains tactical rather than structural.
Implications for Investors
For investors, XRP offers a more nuanced setup than many other large-cap cryptocurrencies. The positive case rests on legal clarity, measurable ETF inflows and a payments-focused use case tied to the XRP Ledger and the growth of RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar-backed stablecoin, which reached approximately $1.3 billion in market capitalization within its first year. Those factors may help XRP recover faster than peers if the broader crypto market stabilizes.
The risks are equally clear. XRP has broken below its 200-week moving average, a bearish signal on long-term charts. It also faces recurring supply pressure from the monthly 1 billion XRP escrow release. Even if not all of that supply reaches the market, the schedule can cap rallies when demand weakens. Investors should also monitor falling network fees, which raise a deeper question about value capture: whether rising ecosystem activity directly translates into stronger token demand.
Macro conditions remain the biggest variable. A hawkish Federal Reserve, elevated Treasury yields and renewed geopolitical risk have weighed on speculative assets across the board. XRP may be declining less than Bitcoin and Ethereum, but it is still trading inside the same risk complex. If Bitcoin stabilizes and ETF inflows into XRP stay positive, XRP could attempt a move back toward $1.25 and beyond. If Bitcoin weakens further or ETF flows reverse, the downside path toward $1.00 and potentially $0.90 becomes harder to dismiss.
The next phase for XRP will likely be decided by whether structural demand can keep offsetting macro pressure and supply expansion. For now, the token looks firmer than many peers, but investors still need confirmation above resistance before treating the latest bounce as more than a temporary reprieve.
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