XRP price remained under pressure on Oct. 1, trading near $1.49 after Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow in four scheduled transactions. The token held above the closely watched $1.46 support level, even as the unlock introduced roughly $1.49 billion of potential supply at current market prices.
The immediate market question is whether steady demand from U.S. spot XRP ETFs and broader XRP Ledger activity can continue to absorb new supply. ETF products now hold 1.16 billion XRP, while traders are still watching the $1.70 area as the main breakout threshold after two failed attempts in recent months.
That leaves XRP in a familiar position: structurally stronger than earlier in the year, but still range-bound as macro conditions, token supply mechanics and investor sentiment all compete for control of the next move.
Key Facts
- XRP traded at about $1.4933 in the U.S. session, down 1.6% from roughly $1.52 a day earlier.
- Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow on Oct. 1 through four transactions of 400 million, 300 million, 200 million and 100 million tokens.
- U.S. spot XRP ETFs hold 1.16 billion XRP worth about $1.76 billion after an 11-week inflow streak.
- XRP gained 48% in the third quarter, its strongest third-quarter performance in four years.
- The token remains about 59% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65, with market capitalization near $94.1 billion.
XRP Price and Escrow Release
The monthly escrow release is not new, but it remains one of the most important recurring events for XRP price formation. Ripple has been unlocking up to 1 billion XRP each month since December 2017, and the market now treats the process as a known supply event rather than an automatic bearish catalyst. In September, 700 million of the 1 billion unlocked was returned to escrow, consistent with the long-running pattern of re-locking 60% to 80% of released tokens.
What matters for investors is not the headline unlock alone, but the net addition to circulating supply after re-locking. Historically, that net figure has often landed between 200 million and 400 million XRP per month. Even so, the monthly release is large enough to shape sentiment because it can exceed what ETFs and other visible demand channels absorb over similar periods.
XRP is therefore trading between two competing forces. On one side is predictable supply from Ripple, which can cap upside if demand does not accelerate. On the other is a strengthening demand backdrop that includes ETF accumulation, growth in Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, expanding on-ledger activity and improving liquidity across the XRP Ledger ecosystem. For now, the result is a trading range rather than a decisive trend break.
XRP is showing that predictable supply alone is no longer enough to break the market, but demand still has to prove it can overpower the $1.70 ceiling.
Why $1.70 Matters More Than the Unlock
Technical traders are focused less on the escrow event itself and more on XRP’s repeated failure to clear $1.70. That level aligns with a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement area that rejected price in August and again near $1.66 in September. Two failed advances at nearly the same zone have made it the most important resistance on the chart.
Below the market, $1.46 remains the first support level to watch after being tested twice in late September. If XRP loses that floor, traders may begin targeting the broader $1.40 zone. A clean daily close above $1.70, by contrast, would likely shift sentiment quickly and bring the next upside area near $1.86 into focus.
Implications for Investors
For investors, XRP currently offers a mix of improving fundamentals and elevated execution risk. The bullish case rests on several data points: ETF holdings have climbed to 1.16 billion XRP, RLUSD supply has reached $2.41 billion, and the token posted a 48% gain in the third quarter. Those figures suggest that institutional-style vehicles and ecosystem usage are supplying a more durable demand base than in prior cycles.
The risk is that demand remains insufficient relative to supply and macro pressure. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, the highest since 2002, while the dollar index hovered near 102. Higher yields tend to pressure non-yielding risk assets, including crypto. XRP also lagged Bitcoin and Ether over the past 24 hours, with BTC up 0.6% and ETH up 2.1% while XRP fell 1.6%, a sign that token-specific concerns are still weighing on performance.
Portfolio positioning therefore depends heavily on time horizon. Short-term traders may continue to treat XRP as a range-bound asset between roughly $1.40 and $1.66 until a confirmed breakout or breakdown occurs. Longer-term investors may see value in the combination of ETF adoption, payment-network expansion and XRP Ledger activity, but they still need to account for recurring monthly supply, regulatory uncertainty and an active derivatives market with open interest near $3.48 billion.
Another important watch-point is the composition of ETF demand. Retail investors account for the large majority of inflows, while bigger institutions have remained relatively cautious. That means XRP’s next leg higher may require more than steady retail buying; it may need broader institutional participation, stronger macro conditions or a clear catalyst such as a regulatory breakthrough or major commercial adoption event.
The next phase for XRP will likely hinge on two simple tests: whether Ripple re-locks a substantial share of the Oct. 1 release, and whether buyers can finally force a close above $1.70. Until then, XRP appears supported, but not yet free of the range that has defined trading since late summer.