Young Americans are pulling back from the housing market at a striking pace. In 2025 and 2026, just 25% of U.S. adults who do not already own a home say they expect to buy one within the next five years, the lowest level since this measure began in 2013.
The shift is especially pronounced among younger adults, traditionally the core pipeline for first-time buyers. For Americans aged 18 to 34, the share expecting to purchase a home within five years has fallen to 29%, down from 57% in 2013 and 2015.
Behind the decline is a familiar but financially important mix: elevated home prices, high mortgage rates and wage growth that has not kept pace with housing costs. The result is a housing market that is increasingly inaccessible for households that once would have been expected to buy earlier in life.
Key Facts
- Only 25% of non-homeowners expect to buy a home within the next five years in 2025 and 2026.
- That 25% reading is the lowest since the survey began tracking the question in 2013.
- Among adults aged 18 to 34, homebuying intent fell from 57% in 2013 and 2015 to 29% in 2025 and 2026.
- The share of younger non-owners who do not expect to buy a home in the foreseeable future rose from 13% to 30% over the same period.
- Many non-owners who still hope to buy expect to wait longer while saving for a down payment or waiting for mortgage rates and prices to ease.
Young Americans and Homeownership
The data points to a meaningful reset in housing expectations, not just a temporary pause in demand. Homeownership has long functioned as both a financial milestone and a wealth-building tool in the United States. When fewer young adults believe they can buy within five years, it suggests the affordability problem is affecting long-term household formation, not merely delaying transactions by a few quarters.
The affordability squeeze is straightforward in financial terms. Higher home prices raise the required down payment and increase loan balances, while elevated mortgage rates push monthly payments even higher. For younger households, that creates a double barrier: it takes longer to accumulate enough cash to enter the market, and the cost of carrying a mortgage becomes harder to justify relative to income. Stagnant real wages compound the issue by limiting how quickly purchasing power can catch up.
This matters beyond first-time buyers. A weaker entry-level market can slow turnover across the broader housing ecosystem, affecting builders, mortgage lenders, real estate brokers, home improvement retailers and local tax bases. It also shapes consumer behavior in adjacent sectors, from furniture and appliances to insurance and banking, because delayed homeownership often delays related spending.
For a growing share of young Americans, homeownership is shifting from a near-term goal to an uncertain long-term prospect.
Why the affordability gap is widening
The current environment is difficult because several pressures are hitting at once. Home values remain elevated after years of price appreciation, while financing costs have stayed high enough to materially change monthly affordability. Even if prices stop rising, borrowing costs alone can keep many first-time buyers sidelined.
At the same time, the down-payment hurdle has become more severe. Buyers who cannot rely on existing home equity must build savings from income, and that process is slower when rent, student debt, childcare and everyday expenses consume a larger share of monthly budgets. For many households, waiting is less a strategic decision than a balance-sheet necessity.
Implications for Investors
For investors, the trend reinforces the idea that housing affordability is now a structural theme with cross-sector consequences. Publicly traded homebuilders may continue to see uneven demand, with pressure concentrated at the entry level unless incentives, smaller floorplans or financing support help bridge the gap. Mortgage lenders and housing-related financial firms could face a slower conversion pipeline among first-time buyers, even if refinancing or move-up activity stabilizes.
There are also second-order effects worth watching. If younger households rent for longer, apartment owners and single-family rental operators may benefit from sustained demand. Consumer companies tied to renting, furnishing smaller spaces or flexible living arrangements could also find support. By contrast, businesses heavily exposed to traditional first-home purchases may need to navigate a more extended adjustment period.
Portfolio positioning should take into account several watch-points: mortgage rate direction, wage growth relative to inflation, housing inventory and any policy measures aimed at affordability or first-time buyers. A meaningful improvement in rates or supply could revive demand, but the survey data suggests sentiment has already shifted enough that recovery may be gradual rather than immediate.
The housing market remains central to U.S. consumption and household wealth. If younger Americans continue to postpone buying, investors should expect ripple effects across real estate, finance and consumer sectors well beyond 2026.
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